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  <front>
    <title>Analysis of Hybrid Key Exchange and Standalone ML-KEM in TLS 1.3</title>
    <seriesInfo name="Internet-Draft" value="draft-usama-tls-risks-of-mlkem-03"/>
    <author fullname="Muhammad Usama Sardar">
      <organization>TU Dresden, Germany</organization>
      <address>
        <email>muhammad_usama.sardar@tu-dresden.de</email>
      </address>
    </author>
    <date year="2026" month="June" day="11"/>
    <area>Security</area>
    <workgroup>Transport Layer Security</workgroup>
    <abstract>
      <?line 59?>

<t>The draft presents <em>symbolic</em> and <em>computational</em> analysis of hybrid key exchange and standalone ML-KEM.
In our observation, we believe that hybrid key exchange is preferable over standalone ML-KEM until a powerful CRQC exists which breaks <strong>all</strong> the bits of pre-quantum.
This draft also offers opinions of the IETF participants and some preliminary discussion to help the developers and policymakers make informed choices.
Finally, it offers minimal implementation guidance for hybrids.</t>
    </abstract>
    <note removeInRFC="true">
      <name>About This Document</name>
      <t>
        The latest revision of this draft can be found at <eref target="https://muhammad-usama-sardar.github.io/risks-of-mlkem/draft-usama-tls-risks-of-mlkem.html"/>.
        Status information for this document may be found at <eref target="https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/draft-usama-tls-risks-of-mlkem/"/>.
      </t>
      <t>
        Discussion of this document takes place on the
        Transport Layer Security Working Group mailing list (<eref target="mailto:tls@ietf.org"/>),
        which is archived at <eref target="https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/browse/tls/"/>.
        Subscribe at <eref target="https://www.ietf.org/mailman/listinfo/tls/"/>.
      </t>
      <t>Source for this draft and an issue tracker can be found at
        <eref target="https://github.com/muhammad-usama-sardar/risks-of-mlkem"/>.</t>
    </note>
  </front>
  <middle>
    <?line 66?>

<section anchor="introduction">
      <name>Introduction</name>
      <t>Readers are assumed to be familiar with <xref target="NistFips203"/>, <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-rfc8446bis"/>, and <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem"/>. Please note that the draft has currently several hyperlinks.</t>
      <section anchor="objectives">
        <name>Objectives</name>
        <t>The draft serves three objectives:</t>
        <ul spacing="normal">
          <li>
            <t>Summary of formal methods (symbolic and computational) works for hybrid key exchange and standalone ML-KEM</t>
          </li>
          <li>
            <t>Capturing the opinions of the IETF participants to avoid repetition</t>
          </li>
          <li>
            <t>Minimal implementation guidance for hybrids</t>
          </li>
        </ul>
        <section anchor="summary-of-formal-methods-works">
          <name>Summary of Formal Methods Works</name>
          <t>The draft covers the formal methods for the security considerations of <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem"/>.
This includes <em>symbolic</em> and <em>computational</em> analysis (to be interpreted as in <eref target="https://eprint.iacr.org/2019/1393.pdf">SoK</eref>) of integration of standalone ML-KEM in the context of TLS.
Specifically, it covers the formal analysis <xref target="FATT-CHANCE"/> in ProVerif on the potential issue of asymmetry.
The analysis confirms that asymmetry is not a problem.</t>
        </section>
        <section anchor="capturing-the-opinions-of-ietf">
          <name>Capturing the Opinions of IETF</name>
          <t>The draft also aims to reduce the endless repetition of arguments from both sides presented on several lists by documenting these arguments so they can simply be referred to. This draft captures what <em>we</em> understand them to be saying.
The goal is that people can be a bit more fair and balanced to acknowledge others' opinions, rather than stating their opinion as universal truth, or else present substantial scientific evidence if they claim their opinion to be universal truth.
In our understanding, the question largely boils down to: whether the traditional or post-quantum cryptographic primitive breaks first?</t>
        </section>
        <section anchor="minimal-implementation-guidance-for-hybrids">
          <name>Minimal Implementation Guidance for Hybrids</name>
          <t>The implementation concern is not only whether ML-KEM is secure as a
primitive, but whether a TLS deployment can show that both hybrid
components were validated, transcript-bound, and fail-closed under the
negotiated group.</t>
        </section>
      </section>
      <section anchor="sec-mot">
        <name>Motivation</name>
        <t><xref target="rfc3552"/> requires to document the risks in the security considerations.
To support those requirements for <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem"/>, this draft aims to formally study the security of standalone ML-KEM in TLS 1.3.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="intuition">
        <name>Intuition</name>
        <t>Leaking out the ECDHE key from hybrid key exchange should downgrade the security to the level of a standalone ML-KEM.
Therefore, hybrid key exchange is <em>in general</em> more secure, unless:</t>
        <ul spacing="normal">
          <li>
            <t>ECDHE is fully broken, in which case it still falls equivalent to standalone ML-KEM,</t>
          </li>
          <li>
            <t>in the <em>hypothetical</em> scenario that there is an implementation bug in the ECDHE part which is triggered only in composition. We have not yet seen any concrete evidence of such a scenario on the list.</t>
          </li>
        </ul>
        <t>We believe that <em>in general</em>:</t>
        <artwork><![CDATA[
1. Migration from ECDHE to hybrid key exchange is security improvement.
2. Migration from hybrid key exchange to standalone ML-KEM is security
regression, unless CRQC exists to break all ECC keys.
]]></artwork>
        <section anchor="expected-learning">
          <name>Expected Learning</name>
          <t>We believe formal methods can provide additional value for security considerations of this draft in order to maintain the high cryptographic assurance of TLS.</t>
          <artwork><![CDATA[
Since we have no guarantee on whether ECDHE will break before ML-KEM,
it seems appropriate to do thorough cryptographic analysis.
We believe the Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) attack applies
equally well to standalone ML-KEM.
]]></artwork>
          <t>Adversary can record all traffic and decrypt it when ML-KEM is broken.
The opinions of WG participants here vary from "ML-KEM is secure" to "ML-KEM is probably already secrectly broken."
Formal methods can operate under the assumption that ML-KEM is secure, and focus on the integration of ML-KEM in TLS under this assumption.</t>
          <ul spacing="normal">
            <li>
              <t>As an example, formal methods can help justify design choices, such as the preference for hybrid key exchanges.
It can also help identify all the assumptions under which the properties hold.</t>
            </li>
            <li>
              <t>As a relevant data point in the context of standardization, LAKE WG has done formal analysis for EDHOC-PSK with KEM (<eref target="https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/msg/lake/2XGOI9OCwylJUfSCasvvwM2FXmw/">ref</eref>).</t>
            </li>
            <li>
              <t><em>Computational</em> analysis (cf. <eref target="https://eprint.iacr.org/2019/1393.pdf">SoK</eref>) -- using tools such as CryptoVerif -- seems like a reasonable approach to ensure security of ML-KEM in TLS, such as binding shared secret <tt>ss</tt> to the TLS transcript hash.</t>
            </li>
          </ul>
          <artwork><![CDATA[
We believe that the focus of symbolic analysis ought to be on the
*integration* details (transcript binding, key schedule, agreement)
for standalone ML-KEM in the context of TLS, rather than the
*primitive* itself.
]]></artwork>
        </section>
      </section>
    </section>
    <section anchor="conventions-and-definitions">
      <name>Conventions and Definitions</name>
      <t>The key words "<bcp14>MUST</bcp14>", "<bcp14>MUST NOT</bcp14>", "<bcp14>REQUIRED</bcp14>", "<bcp14>SHALL</bcp14>", "<bcp14>SHALL
NOT</bcp14>", "<bcp14>SHOULD</bcp14>", "<bcp14>SHOULD NOT</bcp14>", "<bcp14>RECOMMENDED</bcp14>", "<bcp14>NOT RECOMMENDED</bcp14>",
"<bcp14>MAY</bcp14>", and "<bcp14>OPTIONAL</bcp14>" in this document are to be interpreted as
described in BCP 14 <xref target="RFC2119"/> <xref target="RFC8174"/> when, and only when, they
appear in all capitals, as shown here.</t>
      <?line -18?>

<ul spacing="normal">
        <li>
          <t>Symbolic analysis: see <eref target="https://eprint.iacr.org/2019/1393.pdf">SoK</eref></t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t>Computational analysis: see <eref target="https://eprint.iacr.org/2019/1393.pdf">SoK</eref></t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t>Standalone ML-KEM refers to <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem"/>.</t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t>Hybrid key exchange refers to <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-ecdhe-mlkem"/> and <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-hybrid-design"/>.</t>
        </li>
      </ul>
      <t>We believe that symbolic and computational models are complementary and not a substitute of each other.</t>
      <section anchor="sec-proof-break">
        <name>Key Exchange and Key Encapsulation</name>
        <t>In traditional key exchange (DHKE), both endpoints send their public key shares g<sup>x</sup> and g<sup>y</sup> to derive a shared secret g<sup>xy</sup>.</t>
        <t>In key encapsulation, there is essentially only one endpoint (say client) which generates the key pair <tt>(dk,ek)</tt> where <tt>dk</tt> represents the <em>secret decapsulation key</em> and <tt>ek</tt> represents the <em>public encapsulation key</em>.
In a KEM, only one of the endpoints (client in above example) sends the public encapsulation key <tt>ek</tt> and the peer (server) sends a ciphertext <tt>ct</tt>.</t>
      </section>
    </section>
    <section anchor="computational-analysis">
      <name>Computational Analysis</name>
      <section anchor="sec-tech-rat">
        <name>Hybrids</name>
        <t>Technically, a proof of <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-hybrid-design-09"/> is done in the computational model using CryptoVerif (cf. <eref target="https://bblanche.gitlabpages.inria.fr/publications/BlanchetJacommeCSF24.pdf">ref</eref>). As per list discussion, it appears that the proof applies to the latest version of the spec <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-hybrid-design"/>, as there seem to be no substantive changes from the perspective of formal proof.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="standalone-ml-kem">
        <name>Standalone ML-KEM</name>
        <t>Some existing computational analysis for standalone ML-KEM in TLS include <eref target="https://eprint.iacr.org/2021/844">this</eref> and <eref target="https://eprint.iacr.org/2024/1360">this</eref>.
Both are based on pen-and-paper (computational) proofs.
At the symbolic level, some analysis -- such as <eref target="https://eprint.iacr.org/2022/1111.pdf">this</eref> for KEMTLS in Tamarin -- exists. In our understanding, both client and server encapsulate, which may bring the symmetry.</t>
      </section>
    </section>
    <section anchor="symbolic-analysis">
      <name>Symbolic Analysis</name>
      <t>For brevity, we omit other assumptions in the properties below and focus on the difference.
This assumes hybrid constructor to be secure.</t>
      <section anchor="sec-model-analyze">
        <name>Minimum Viable Modeling</name>
        <t>Based on the discussion on list, simply replacing ideal DHKE by ideal ML-KEM in the formal model is not very useful. We ought to focus on the more security-critical questions about integration of ML-KEM in TLS.
We present a few high-level observations to consider for security considerations of <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem"/>:</t>
        <ul spacing="normal">
          <li>
            <t>The model ought to consider that any agent could have initiated the TLS, rather than assigning the agents with static roles of client and server in the model. When agents are assigned non-static roles, it would be interesting to see whether the asymmetry issue becomes visible in some property. We consider it very critical for security considerations of <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem"/> and this is the key point of this draft.</t>
          </li>
          <li>
            <t>Different failure modes proposed on list can be modeled.</t>
          </li>
          <li>
            <t>A large part of the problem is the careful investigation of what to model, under what threat model, under what system model, under what implementation scenarios etc. We believe some of this is important for security considerations of <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem"/>.</t>
          </li>
          <li>
            <t>It will be interesting to see some analysis about any subtle cases where hybrid key exchange in TLS is <em>not</em> at least as good as standalone ML-KEM in TLS. Our understanding is that some participants would like to see some statement on the comparison since hybrid key exchange is the de facto industry standard.</t>
          </li>
          <li>
            <t>We believe brainstorming about some robustness (vs. security) properties would also be useful. Even if the security properties hold, does standalone ML-KEM make side-channel leakage easier? This might be a valuable consideration for the implementers.</t>
          </li>
          <li>
            <t>Analysis may be helpful to ensure that the changes -- such as the removal of hash function (cf. Appendix C.1, bullet 3 in <xref target="NistFips203"/>) -- from Kyber to ML-KEM preserve the security proofs of Kyber.</t>
          </li>
        </ul>
        <t>Any analysis on these or related security and robustness matters is very welcome.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="hybrid-key-exchange">
        <name>Hybrid Key Exchange</name>
        <t>Hybrid key exchange still maintains the DHKE part. From formal (symbolic) analysis perspective, g<sup>x</sup> and  g<sup>y</sup> are still sent in hybrid key exchange,  g<sup>xy</sup> is still computed and we believe the commutativity property is applicable for that part as-is. From formal (symbolic) analysis perspective, ML-KEM is complementary to that.</t>
        <t>Specifically, from <xref section="4" sectionFormat="of" target="I-D.ietf-tls-ecdhe-mlkem"/>, for the symbolic analysis, X25519MLKEM768 in TLS may be viewed as:</t>
        <artwork><![CDATA[
client's key_exchange value = ek || gx
server's key_exchange value = ct || gy
shared secret = ss || gxy
]]></artwork>
        <t>Formally, the property hybrid key exchange provides is:</t>
        <artwork><![CDATA[
Security properties of TLS hold unless *both* `gxy` and `ss` are
available to the adversary.
]]></artwork>
        <t>As presented in <xref target="sec-tech-rat"/>, hybrid key exchange preserves ECDHE component <tt>gxy</tt>, and concatenates ML-KEM component <tt>ss</tt> as an additional factor.
So as long as <em>at least</em> one of these two secrets is not available to the adversary, all security properties should hold.
In particular, even if ML-KEM is completely broken, i.e., <tt>ss</tt> is available to the adversary, the protocol retains the security level of ECDHE.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="standalone-ml-kem-1">
        <name>Standalone ML-KEM</name>
        <t>On the other hand, the formal property standalone ML-KEM provides is:</t>
        <artwork><![CDATA[
Security properties of TLS hold unless `ss` is available to the
adversary.
]]></artwork>
      </section>
      <section anchor="sec-results">
        <name>Results</name>
        <t>For the FATT process <xref target="TLS-FATT"/>, the symbolic analysis <xref target="FATT-CHANCE"/> was done in ProVerif by Nadim Kobeissi, who concludes:</t>
        <artwork><![CDATA[
The hybrid neutralizes every weakness standalone ML-KEM carries,
both the confidentiality single point of failure and the
authentication (key-confirmation) failure that rides along
with it, by demanding that both of its components fail at once;
and moving from today’s classical (EC)DHE to a hybrid never gives
up ground, because the classical guarantee survives intact inside
the combination. That is the precise sense in which the hybrid
strictly dominates standalone.

None of this says standalone ML-KEM is broken. Under its stated
assumption, that ML-KEM holds, it is secure under our models.
The argument against it is one of robustness, not of any
present-day attack: it stakes everything on a single, relatively
young assumption, where the hybrid keeps a mature fallback in
reserve. For a deployer who cannot afford to be wrong about
lattice cryptography for the lifetime of the data being protected,
that distinction is the whole game. The two caveats bound the
picture honestly: reuse is a real and quantifiable cost rather
than a catastrophe, and the role-asymmetry worry, while genuinely
the draft’s headline concern, did not surface as a distinct
vulnerability in the server-authenticated, one-initiator-per-session
setting analyzed here.
]]></artwork>
        <t>Results confirm integration of KEM in TLS is secure as long as the primitive itself is secure.
In our understanding, results also imply a clear preference for hybrids under the Dolev-Yao model, in the sense that if the shared secret from ML-KEM becomes available to the adversary (for example, due to implementation bug), both confidentiality and authentication are broken in standalone ML-KEM, whereas under same condition, both confidentiality and authentication still hold as long as (EC)DHE is still not available to the adversary.
We believe this applies until a powerful CRQC exists which breaks <strong>all</strong> the bits of pre-quantum, where the condition of (EC)DHE being available to the adversary is violated.</t>
        <t>The artifacts are available <eref target="https://github.com/symbolicsoft/reftls">here</eref> for independent review.</t>
      </section>
    </section>
    <section anchor="sec-impl-negative-cases">
      <name>Implementation-Facing Negative Cases</name>
      <t>The formal analysis above is not an implementation test suite and does not
replace protocol conformance testing.
However, a short set of negative cases can help implementers check that
the intended hybrid binding property is reflected in their APIs, transcript
handling, and key schedule integration.</t>
      <t>In particular, implementations of hybrid key exchange ought to reject, or
fail safely on, cases such as the following:</t>
      <ul spacing="normal">
        <li>
          <t><strong>malformed or missing shares</strong>: The negotiated group is a hybrid group, but one component of the peer
key share is missing, malformed, or associated with a different group.</t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t><strong>mixed transcript context</strong>: The ECDHE and KEM values are individually well-formed, but assembled
from different handshakes, transcript contexts, or negotiated groups.</t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t><strong>fallback after hybrid negotiation</strong>: A peer attempts to continue the handshake as standalone ECDHE or
standalone ML-KEM after a hybrid group was negotiated.</t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t><strong>premature secret derivation</strong>: Application traffic secrets are derived before both hybrid components
have been validated and accepted under the negotiated group.</t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t><strong>API/logging ambiguity</strong>: Exported state, logs, traces, or implementation APIs make a hybrid
exchange appear as if only one component was used or accepted.</t>
        </li>
      </ul>
      <t>These cases are not intended to create a new formal proof obligation.
They are implementation-facing checks that help bridge the formal
"both components are bound and accepted" property to concrete failure
modes that implementations can accidentally mishandle.</t>
      <section anchor="sec-argument-matrix">
        <name>Argument Matrix for Implementation Review</name>
        <t>The discussion above can be read as an argument matrix for implementers
and reviewers.  The point is not to resolve every policy preference in
this document, but to make each recurring argument map to a concrete
review question.</t>
        <table>
          <thead>
            <tr>
              <th align="left">Argument</th>
              <th align="left">Implementation-facing review question</th>
              <th align="left">Why it matters</th>
            </tr>
          </thead>
          <tbody>
            <tr>
              <td align="left">Hybrid key exchange retains two components.</td>
              <td align="left">Does the implementation make it clear that both the ECDHE and ML-KEM components were present, validated, and bound to the same negotiated group and transcript?</td>
              <td align="left">Otherwise a successful handshake may not actually reflect the formal "both components are bound and accepted" property.</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
              <td align="left">Standalone ML-KEM has a single KEM shared secret.</td>
              <td align="left">Are failures in encapsulation, decapsulation, transcript binding, and key-schedule input handled as fail-closed errors rather than as retry or fallback paths?</td>
              <td align="left">A standalone construction has no second key-exchange component to preserve confidentiality if the ML-KEM path is mishandled.</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
              <td align="left">Hybrid fallback is useful only when it is explicit.</td>
              <td align="left">After a hybrid group is negotiated, can either endpoint silently continue as standalone ECDHE or standalone ML-KEM?</td>
              <td align="left">Silent continuation changes the negotiated security property and makes interop failures hard to distinguish from downgrades.</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
              <td align="left">Cost claims are deployment-dependent.</td>
              <td align="left">Are claimed savings measured separately for wire bytes, CPU, memory, latency, code complexity, and operational rollout?</td>
              <td align="left">Treating "cost" as a single value can hide whether a deployment is trading away cryptographic robustness for a negligible or unmeasured gain.</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
              <td align="left">Formal models do not cover every implementation interface.</td>
              <td align="left">Do APIs, logs, exported state, and test harnesses expose enough detail to show which component failed or succeeded?</td>
              <td align="left">Reviewers need observable evidence that the implementation behavior matches the protocol-level claim.</td>
            </tr>
          </tbody>
        </table>
        <t>This matrix is deliberately small.  It is intended to help a reviewer
decide whether a concrete implementation or deployment argument belongs
in the formal-methods discussion, in implementation guidance, or in a
separate operational cost analysis.</t>
      </section>
    </section>
    <section anchor="sec-gen-issues">
      <name>Issues That Formal Methods Probably Cannot Solve</name>
      <t>The answers to the following issues are largely dependent on several factors, and the opinions vary largely.</t>
      <t>It is necessary to mention that even several respectable cryptographers in the community are not aligned on the issue -- for example see the <eref target="https://github.com/FiloSottile/ecc-vs-lattices-long-bet">long bet</eref>. Hence, our personal opinion is probably not that important. Probably the best we can do is to capture <em>our</em> understanding of the views of WG participants.</t>
      <artwork><![CDATA[
Disclaimer: This is not meant to be an exhaustive list.
This is also not meant to pritoritize any concerns over others.
This is a sincere attempt to slowly capture the opinions
to avoid endless repetitions from both sides.
Some substantive concerns may be missing.
If your substantive concern is missing, it is unintentional.
Please simply submit a *precise* and *concise* PR, preferably
with a reference.
]]></artwork>
      <section anchor="which-breaks-first-ml-kem-768-or-x25519">
        <name>Which breaks first: ML-KEM-768 or X25519?</name>
        <t>In our understanding, the key open question boils down to:</t>
        <artwork><![CDATA[
Which of the two cryptographic mechanisms breaks first?
How does that relate to the CRQC being developed?
How many bits of pre-quantum cryptography can that CRQC actually
break?
Since all of three can be kept secret for some time,
the opinions vary a lot on the different possible combinations.
]]></artwork>
      </section>
      <section anchor="does-crqc-break-all-bits-of-pre-quantum">
        <name>Does CRQC Break All Bits of Pre-quantum?</name>
        <t>Some participants believe that CRQC will break all bits of pre-quantum cryptographic, while some others believe that it will break <eref target="https://cr.yp.to/papers/mldsa-20260601.pdf#breakable-keys">only a few bits</eref>.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="policyregulations">
        <name>Policy/Regulations</name>
        <t>Some countries have a regulatory preference for hybrid key exchange.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="sec-designers-view">
        <name>Recommendation of Designers</name>
        <t>The authors of Kyber/ML-KEM (see <eref target="https://pq-crystals.org/kyber/index.shtml">this</eref>) say:</t>
        <artwork><![CDATA[
For users who are interested in using Kyber, we recommend the
following:

* Use Kyber in a so-called hybrid mode in combination with
established "pre-quantum" security; for example in combination
with elliptic-curve Diffie-Hellman.
[...]
]]></artwork>
        <t>A WG participant <eref target="https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/msg/tls/NnGrdavTY6KGTVQo46xaPbSHQzw/">shares</eref> that:</t>
        <artwork><![CDATA[
I recently asked one of the members of the CRYSTALS team
whether this is still his view, and the response was:
"Yes, of course."
]]></artwork>
      </section>
      <section anchor="thorough-review">
        <name>Thorough Review</name>
        <t>Please see a very thorough review <eref target="https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/msg/tls/jlsYHENwqMv-4XPRvunqKsAL36k/">here</eref>, which is self-sufficient.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="significantly-harder-argument">
        <name>'Significantly Harder' Argument</name>
        <t>Some participants believe in the 'significantly harder' argument, which assumes independence of breakage of ML-KEM and traditionals:</t>
        <artwork><![CDATA[
If the probablity of one being broken over the next n years is p, and
the probability of the other being broken over the next n years is q,
then the probability of both being broken is pq.
]]></artwork>
        <t>Please see <eref target="https://github.com/FiloSottile/ecc-vs-lattices-long-bet#2a-what-counts-as-a-break">this</eref> for what "broken" may mean here modulo some <eref target="https://github.com/FiloSottile/ecc-vs-lattices-long-bet#5-exclusions">exclusions</eref>.</t>
        <t>Given the very different type of cryptographic constructions involved, independence might be a reasonable assumption.
However, some participants disagree with 'significantly harder' argument with a reasonable counter-argument that in reality, cryptography is much more complicated than that (cf. <eref target="https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/msg/tls/AK7QUiiGX3ynsOhXeUuwn_IY7ik/">this</eref>):</t>
        <artwork><![CDATA[
Depending on the algorithms and the composition method,
the probability can clearly be q, or smaller than pq.
]]></artwork>
        <t>In our understanding, most other counter-arguments seem to break the <eref target="https://github.com/FiloSottile/ecc-vs-lattices-long-bet#5-exclusions">exclusions</eref>.</t>
        <t>Please note that this argument is based on the security of <em>primitives</em>, rather than the <em>composition</em> of primitives in protocols. Hence, formal methods probably have nothing to help here.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="urgency">
        <name>Urgency</name>
        <t>It is unclear <em>whether</em> and if applicable <em>when</em> Cryptographically-Relevant Quantum Computer (CRQC) will eventually become practical.
The opinions vary from never because of complicated physics (see <eref target="https://eprint.iacr.org/2025/1237">this</eref>) to be <em>prepared</em> for it as early as 2029 (see <eref target="https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/">Google 2029</eref> and <eref target="https://blog.cloudflare.com/post-quantum-roadmap/">Cloudflare 2029</eref>).
Technically, please note that Google has not even released the <strong>quantum circuit</strong> underlying their recent claims -- apparently the reason for this urgency. So Google's claims may not yet be justified.</t>
        <t>Moreover, in our understanding, these deadlines are for PQ-based protection in general regardless of hybrid key exchange or standalone KEMs in TLS. Since hybrid key exchange is wildly in use, these deadlines are mainly for quantum-safe authentication.</t>
        <t>In any case, some participants see no reason to create panic for publication of <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem"/> based on this because many implementations -- such as OpenSSL -- have already implemented standalone ML-KEM, and it is just a matter of enabling it. And frankly, nobody needs permission from the IETF to enable it.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="cost">
        <name>"Cost"</name>
        <t>"Cost" has been presented on the list as the motivation for standalone ML-KEM in TLS but we have not seen any supporting analysis.
Our observation from <xref section="4" sectionFormat="of" target="I-D.ietf-tls-ecdhe-mlkem"/> is that -- for example -- for X25519MLKEM768, the traditional part seems negligible compared to ML-KEM part in <tt>key_exchange</tt>:</t>
        <table>
          <thead>
            <tr>
              <th align="left">Bytes in field</th>
              <th align="left">PQ part (ML-KEM)</th>
              <th align="left">Traditional part (X25519)</th>
            </tr>
          </thead>
          <tbody>
            <tr>
              <td align="left">Client share</td>
              <td align="left">1184</td>
              <td align="left">32</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
              <td align="left">Server share</td>
              <td align="left">1088</td>
              <td align="left">32</td>
            </tr>
          </tbody>
        </table>
        <t>We believe other "costs" will depend on several factors -- including but not limited to implementation details and deployment scenario -- and it is quite <strong>subjective</strong>.</t>
        <t>There seems to be a need for a thorough study to understand the "cost."
We invite the WG participants to perform cost analysis and share the results with the WG.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="is-publication-necessary">
        <name>Is Publication Necessary?</name>
        <t>Code Points for ML-KEM have already been assigned.
<xref target="I-D.barnes-tls-this-could-have-been-an-email"/> provides detailed rationale as to why publication of such documents and the debates around that may be unnecessary. In our understanding, <xref target="I-D.pwouters-crypto-current-practices"/> makes similar arguments.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="shiny-new-crypto">
        <name>Shiny New Crypto</name>
        <t>ML-KEM is quite new in the IETF and even in the IRTF. Some WG participants have shown concern over premature publication of <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem"/> until a detailed analysis has been done by CFRG.</t>
        <t>CFRG is starting some efforts for analysis. The extended deadline for submission is 22.06. Please see the latest <eref target="https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/msg/cfrg/6K43Ycr062Ym1G0q4WHxZQ2HW8M/">CFRG chairs email</eref> for further details.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="formal-mapping-of-fips-to-ietf-bcp14">
        <name>Formal Mapping of FIPS to IETF BCP14</name>
        <t>As discussed on the TLS list, we are not aware of any formal mapping of the FIPS recommendations to the IETF BCP14 terminology, such as <bcp14>SHOULD</bcp14> vs. <bcp14>MUST</bcp14>. In general, we believe re-using FIPS recommendations is ambiguous for IETF readers.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="outstanding-nist-comments">
        <name>Outstanding NIST Comments</name>
        <t>Some participants believe that NIST has rushed through the process and not addressed all the comments that were submitted during the open review. Please see comments <eref target="https://csrc.nist.gov/files/pubs/fips/203/ipd/docs/fips-203-initial-public-comments-2023.pdf">here</eref>.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="too-early">
        <name>Too Early</name>
        <t>Some participants simply believe that publication of <xref target="I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem"/> and related discussions are just too early and unnecessary.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="patents">
        <name>Patents</name>
        <t>Some WG participants have raised some concerns related to patents. See some relevant patents <eref target="https://datatracker.ietf.org/ipr/search/?submit=draft&amp;id=draft-ietf-tls-mlkem">here</eref>.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="implementation-bugs">
        <name>Implementation Bugs</name>
        <t>Some participants are worried about the implementations bugs. Some use it as advocacy for the use of hybrids that if one could exploit one of the two primitives, the other one can save.</t>
      </section>
      <section anchor="depth-of-hybrids">
        <name>Depth of Hybrids?</name>
        <t>Some participants have questioned the ML-KEM + ECC hybrids rather than, say, Module Lattices + McEliece + hash-based three-way composites.</t>
      </section>
    </section>
    <section anchor="sec-sec-cons">
      <name>Security Considerations</name>
      <t>The whole document is about improving security considerations.</t>
      <t>Like all security proofs, formal analysis is only as strong as its assumptions and model.
The scope is typically limited, and the model does not necessarily capture real-world deployment complexity, implementation details, operational constraints, or misuse scenarios.
Technically, formal proof only guarantees anything if all the assumptions hold, which is unlikely in practice.
Formal methods should be used as complementary and not as substitute of other analysis methods.</t>
    </section>
    <section anchor="iana-considerations">
      <name>IANA Considerations</name>
      <t>This document has no IANA actions.</t>
    </section>
  </middle>
  <back>
    <references anchor="sec-combined-references">
      <name>References</name>
      <references anchor="sec-normative-references">
        <name>Normative References</name>
        <reference anchor="NistFips203">
          <front>
            <title>Module-lattice-based key-encapsulation mechanism standard</title>
            <author>
              <organization/>
            </author>
            <date month="August" year="2024"/>
          </front>
          <seriesInfo name="DOI" value="10.6028/nist.fips.203"/>
          <refcontent>National Institute of Standards and Technology (U.S.)</refcontent>
        </reference>
        <reference anchor="I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem">
          <front>
            <title>ML-KEM Post-Quantum Key Agreement for TLS 1.3</title>
            <author fullname="Deirdre Connolly" initials="D." surname="Connolly">
              <organization>SandboxAQ</organization>
            </author>
            <date day="12" month="February" year="2026"/>
            <abstract>
              <t>   This memo defines ML-KEM-512, ML-KEM-768, and ML-KEM-1024 as
   NamedGroups and and registers IANA values in the TLS Supported Groups
   registry for use in TLS 1.3 to achieve post-quantum (PQ) key
   establishment.

              </t>
            </abstract>
          </front>
          <seriesInfo name="Internet-Draft" value="draft-ietf-tls-mlkem-07"/>
        </reference>
        <reference anchor="I-D.ietf-tls-rfc8446bis">
          <front>
            <title>The Transport Layer Security (TLS) Protocol Version 1.3</title>
            <author fullname="Eric Rescorla" initials="E." surname="Rescorla">
              <organization>Independent</organization>
            </author>
            <date day="13" month="September" year="2025"/>
            <abstract>
              <t>   This document specifies version 1.3 of the Transport Layer Security
   (TLS) protocol.  TLS allows client/server applications to communicate
   over the Internet in a way that is designed to prevent eavesdropping,
   tampering, and message forgery.

   This document updates RFCs 5705, 6066, 7627, and 8422 and obsoletes
   RFCs 5077, 5246, 6961, 8422, and 8446.  This document also specifies
   new requirements for TLS 1.2 implementations.

              </t>
            </abstract>
          </front>
          <seriesInfo name="Internet-Draft" value="draft-ietf-tls-rfc8446bis-14"/>
        </reference>
        <reference anchor="TLS-FATT" target="https://github.com/tlswg/tls-fatt">
          <front>
            <title>TLS FATT Process</title>
            <author>
              <organization>IETF TLS WG</organization>
            </author>
            <date year="2025" month="June"/>
          </front>
        </reference>
        <reference anchor="RFC2119">
          <front>
            <title>Key words for use in RFCs to Indicate Requirement Levels</title>
            <author fullname="S. Bradner" initials="S." surname="Bradner"/>
            <date month="March" year="1997"/>
            <abstract>
              <t>In many standards track documents several words are used to signify the requirements in the specification. These words are often capitalized. This document defines these words as they should be interpreted in IETF documents. This document specifies an Internet Best Current Practices for the Internet Community, and requests discussion and suggestions for improvements.</t>
            </abstract>
          </front>
          <seriesInfo name="BCP" value="14"/>
          <seriesInfo name="RFC" value="2119"/>
          <seriesInfo name="DOI" value="10.17487/RFC2119"/>
        </reference>
        <reference anchor="RFC8174">
          <front>
            <title>Ambiguity of Uppercase vs Lowercase in RFC 2119 Key Words</title>
            <author fullname="B. Leiba" initials="B." surname="Leiba"/>
            <date month="May" year="2017"/>
            <abstract>
              <t>RFC 2119 specifies common key words that may be used in protocol specifications. This document aims to reduce the ambiguity by clarifying that only UPPERCASE usage of the key words have the defined special meanings.</t>
            </abstract>
          </front>
          <seriesInfo name="BCP" value="14"/>
          <seriesInfo name="RFC" value="8174"/>
          <seriesInfo name="DOI" value="10.17487/RFC8174"/>
        </reference>
      </references>
      <references anchor="sec-informative-references">
        <name>Informative References</name>
        <reference anchor="I-D.usama-tls-fatt-extension">
          <front>
            <title>Extensions to TLS FATT Process</title>
            <author fullname="Muhammad Usama Sardar" initials="M. U." surname="Sardar">
              <organization>TU Dresden</organization>
            </author>
            <date day="2" month="May" year="2026"/>
            <abstract>
              <t>   This document applies only to non-trivial extensions of TLS, which
   require formal analysis.  It proposes the authors specify a threat
   model and informal security goals in the Security Considerations
   section, as well as motivation and a protocol diagram in the draft.
   We also briefly present a few pain points of the team doing the
   formal analysis which -- we believe -- require refining the process:

   *  Provide protection against FATT-bypass by other TLS-related WGs

   *  Contacting FATT

   *  ML-KEM

   *  Understanding the opposing goals

   *  Response within reasonable time frame

              </t>
            </abstract>
          </front>
          <seriesInfo name="Internet-Draft" value="draft-usama-tls-fatt-extension-07"/>
        </reference>
        <reference anchor="I-D.pwouters-crypto-current-practices">
          <front>
            <title>Current practices for new cryptography at the IETF</title>
            <author fullname="Paul Wouters" initials="P." surname="Wouters">
              <organization>Aiven</organization>
            </author>
            <date day="3" month="November" year="2024"/>
            <abstract>
              <t>   This document describes the current practices for handling new
   cryptography within the IETF.  Some of these practices are informal
   and depend on individuals in certain relevant roles, such as Working
   Group Chairs, the Security Area Directors and the Independent Stream
   Editor.  This document is intended to increase consistency and
   transparency in how the IETF handles new cryptography, such as new
   algorithms, ciphers and new primitives or combiners, by providing a
   reference for the cryptographic practices within the IETF.  This
   document does not describe any new policies and does not prohibit
   exceptions in the described current practices.

              </t>
            </abstract>
          </front>
          <seriesInfo name="Internet-Draft" value="draft-pwouters-crypto-current-practices-00"/>
        </reference>
        <reference anchor="I-D.barnes-tls-this-could-have-been-an-email">
          <front>
            <title>Stop Doing Cryptographic Algorithm Drafts when Email to IANA is All You Need</title>
            <author fullname="Richard Barnes" initials="R." surname="Barnes">
              <organization>Cisco</organization>
            </author>
            <date day="23" month="February" year="2026"/>
            <abstract>
              <t>   People keep pitching drafts to the TLS Working Group where the only
   thing the draft does is register a code point for a cryptographic
   algorithm.  Stop doing that.  It's unnecessary.  Write an email to
   IANA instead.

              </t>
            </abstract>
          </front>
          <seriesInfo name="Internet-Draft" value="draft-barnes-tls-this-could-have-been-an-email-00"/>
        </reference>
        <reference anchor="rfc3552">
          <front>
            <title>Guidelines for Writing RFC Text on Security Considerations</title>
            <author fullname="E. Rescorla" initials="E." surname="Rescorla"/>
            <author fullname="B. Korver" initials="B." surname="Korver"/>
            <date month="July" year="2003"/>
            <abstract>
              <t>All RFCs are required to have a Security Considerations section. Historically, such sections have been relatively weak. This document provides guidelines to RFC authors on how to write a good Security Considerations section. This document specifies an Internet Best Current Practices for the Internet Community, and requests discussion and suggestions for improvements.</t>
            </abstract>
          </front>
          <seriesInfo name="BCP" value="72"/>
          <seriesInfo name="RFC" value="3552"/>
          <seriesInfo name="DOI" value="10.17487/RFC3552"/>
        </reference>
        <reference anchor="I-D.ietf-tls-ecdhe-mlkem">
          <front>
            <title>Post-quantum hybrid ECDHE-MLKEM Key Agreement for TLSv1.3</title>
            <author fullname="Kris Kwiatkowski" initials="K." surname="Kwiatkowski">
              <organization>PQShield</organization>
            </author>
            <author fullname="Panos Kampanakis" initials="P." surname="Kampanakis">
              <organization>AWS</organization>
            </author>
            <author fullname="Bas Westerbaan" initials="B." surname="Westerbaan">
              <organization>Cloudflare</organization>
            </author>
            <author fullname="Douglas Stebila" initials="D." surname="Stebila">
              <organization>University of Waterloo</organization>
            </author>
            <date day="26" month="May" year="2026"/>
            <abstract>
              <t>   This draft defines three hybrid key agreement mechanisms for TLS 1.3
   - X25519MLKEM768, SecP256r1MLKEM768, and SecP384r1MLKEM1024 - that
   combine the post-quantum ML-KEM (Module-Lattice-Based Key
   Encapsulation Mechanism) with an ECDHE (Elliptic Curve Diffie-
   Hellman) exchange.

              </t>
            </abstract>
          </front>
          <seriesInfo name="Internet-Draft" value="draft-ietf-tls-ecdhe-mlkem-05"/>
        </reference>
        <reference anchor="I-D.ietf-tls-hybrid-design-09">
          <front>
            <title>Hybrid key exchange in TLS 1.3</title>
            <author fullname="Douglas Stebila" initials="D." surname="Stebila">
              <organization>University of Waterloo</organization>
            </author>
            <author fullname="Scott Fluhrer" initials="S." surname="Fluhrer">
              <organization>Cisco Systems</organization>
            </author>
            <author fullname="Shay Gueron" initials="S." surname="Gueron">
              <organization>University of Haifa</organization>
            </author>
            <date day="7" month="September" year="2023"/>
            <abstract>
              <t>   Hybrid key exchange refers to using multiple key exchange algorithms
   simultaneously and combining the result with the goal of providing
   security even if all but one of the component algorithms is broken.
   It is motivated by transition to post-quantum cryptography.  This
   document provides a construction for hybrid key exchange in the
   Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocol version 1.3.

   Discussion of this work is encouraged to happen on the TLS IETF
   mailing list tls@ietf.org or on the GitHub repository which contains
   the draft: https://github.com/dstebila/draft-ietf-tls-hybrid-design.

              </t>
            </abstract>
          </front>
          <seriesInfo name="Internet-Draft" value="draft-ietf-tls-hybrid-design-09"/>
        </reference>
        <reference anchor="I-D.ietf-tls-hybrid-design">
          <front>
            <title>Hybrid key exchange in TLS 1.3</title>
            <author fullname="Douglas Stebila" initials="D." surname="Stebila">
              <organization>University of Waterloo</organization>
            </author>
            <author fullname="Scott Fluhrer" initials="S." surname="Fluhrer">
              <organization>Cisco Systems</organization>
            </author>
            <author fullname="Shay Gueron" initials="S." surname="Gueron">
              <organization>University of Haifa and Meta</organization>
            </author>
            <date day="7" month="September" year="2025"/>
            <abstract>
              <t>   Hybrid key exchange refers to using multiple key exchange algorithms
   simultaneously and combining the result with the goal of providing
   security even if a way is found to defeat the encryption for all but
   one of the component algorithms.  It is motivated by transition to
   post-quantum cryptography.  This document provides a construction for
   hybrid key exchange in the Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocol
   version 1.3.

              </t>
            </abstract>
          </front>
          <seriesInfo name="Internet-Draft" value="draft-ietf-tls-hybrid-design-16"/>
        </reference>
        <reference anchor="FATT-CHANCE" target="https://eprint.iacr.org/2026/1147">
          <front>
            <title>FATT Chance: On the Robustness of Standalone and Hybrid ML-KEM Key Exchange in TLS 1.3</title>
            <author initials="N." surname="Kobeissi" fullname="Nadim Kobeissi">
              <organization>Symbolic Software</organization>
            </author>
            <date year="2026"/>
          </front>
          <seriesInfo name="Cryptology ePrint Archive, Report 2026/1147" value=""/>
        </reference>
      </references>
    </references>
    <?line 496?>

<section numbered="false" anchor="contributors">
      <name>Contributors</name>
      <t>Nadim Kobeissi performed a thorough formal analysis <xref target="sec-results"/> at high priority based on our call for analysis in previous versions of the draft to get a confirmation.</t>
      <t>Text in <xref target="sec-impl-negative-cases"/> was proposed by Songbo Bu.</t>
      <t>Text in <xref target="sec-sec-cons"/> is based on the proposal by John Preuß Mattsson.</t>
      <t><xref target="sec-gen-issues"/> is largely based on the opinions of many IETF participants.</t>
      <t>We gratefully thank Yaakov Stein and Ilari Liusvaara for their substantial technical guidance, valuable feedback, and contributions.</t>
    </section>
    <section numbered="false" anchor="acknowledgments">
      <name>Acknowledgments</name>
      <t>We thank Eric Rescorla, Brian E. Carpenter, and Tibor Jager for their valuable feedback.</t>
      <t>We acknowledge several IETF participants who have contributed to this draft with their insights.</t>
      <t>The research work is funded by German Research Foundation ("Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.")</t>
    </section>
    <section numbered="false" anchor="history">
      <name>History</name>
      <t>-00</t>
      <ul spacing="normal">
        <li>
          <t>On popular demand, moved from <xref target="I-D.usama-tls-fatt-extension"/> to an independent I-D</t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t>Major change: added <xref target="sec-proof-break"/></t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t>Some minor clarifications</t>
        </li>
      </ul>
      <t>-01</t>
      <ul spacing="normal">
        <li>
          <t>Added justification based on FATT process</t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t>Reorganization, specially in motivation</t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t>Added some common arguments: <xref target="sec-gen-issues"/></t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t>Comparison with hybrid key exchange</t>
        </li>
      </ul>
      <t>-02</t>
      <ul spacing="normal">
        <li>
          <t>Added gap analysis</t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t>What to model and analyze? <xref target="sec-model-analyze"/></t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t>Added FATT review is harmless</t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t>Extended comparison with hybrid key exchange</t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t>Opinion of designers <xref target="sec-designers-view"/></t>
        </li>
      </ul>
      <t>-03</t>
      <ul spacing="normal">
        <li>
          <t>Completely restructured and reframed after confirmation by formal analysis</t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t>Added implementation-facing negative cases and argument matrix</t>
        </li>
        <li>
          <t>Some new arguments: implementation bugs, depth of hybrids, policy, all bits, which primitive breaks first?</t>
        </li>
      </ul>
    </section>
  </back>
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